Picks And Parlays

Free MLB Baseball Prediction From Doc's Sports: Take #975 L.A. Angels over Kansas City (8 p.m., Friday, May 24) It's been a tough season for the Los Angeles Angels so far. But there's way too much talent on this team to stay down forever, and they've started to show signs of life this week. They dug themselves a very similar hole last year and ended up having one of the best records in baseball from the end of May on. I think they have the potential to do that again as they have an important four-game series with a pretty good Kansas City Royals team. Jason Vargas goes for the Halos on Friday, and he got off to a horrible start to the 2013 season. It may have been the adjustment period for a new team and surroundings or poor offseason conditioning, but he just couldn't get it going in April. But since then he's been fantastic in May. In four starts he's 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go along with a 23-8 K/BB ratio. One of those starts was against the Royals in which he pitched seven strong innings while allowing only two runs in picking up a win. The Royals counter with journeyman Luis Mendoza, who has bounced back and forth from the starting rotation, bullpen and minor leagues throughout his career. Mendoza is just a stopgap who really doesn't have good enough stuff to pitch deep into games. He holds a 5.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP this season and hasn't found a good rhythm yet. He'll be up against it today with how well the Angels are swinging the bats. I'd be surprised if Mendoza can get them through five innings today, which will put extra pressure on the bullpen. Take Los Angeles in this one.

We like the Pacers for the same reasons we took them in Game 1 of this series. We definitely think these teams are closer than the oddsmakers and general public, and we expect Indiana to really challenge the Heat again in this game. They were one mistake in OT away from winning Game 1 straight up, and we expect another strong effort from them tonight. The Pacers have now covered three of the four meetings between these teams this season, winning two in the regular season by double digits. This team is probably the toughest matchup in the east for the Heat as they are the best rebounding team in the league and also one of the two best defensive teams, and teams like that have given the Heat problems. This is the first real test that Miami has faced in the playoffs. The Bucks were not even a deserving playoff team in our eyes, and the Bulls were a shell of the team they could be with numerous injuries, even to the players that were on the court. The Pacers were tested with two tough series against better-quality opponents, and we have to admit we were surprised with the way they dispatched New York, who we thought would win that series. Miami made it look easy against overmatched competition, but we think that the Pacers are in better form right now (although the Heat are clearly the better team, but we just think this series will be a battle all the way and not the Miami cakewalk everyone expects). Game 1 was on pace to go under until a high-scoring fourth quarter and overtime, and we expect this game to play out mostly like the first three quarters with a strong defensive effort from both teams. And with a game that should be very low scoring, the points with the underdog become all that more valuable.

10-unit Play Take #964 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (10:15pm ET) The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies as the two teams begin a three-game set in AT&T Park this weekend. These teams met last week in Colorado and the Rockies took three of the four games in that series. However, the Rockies are a very tough team to beat in Coors Field, so I expect this series to be a complete 180 from last week. Both teams have identical 26-21 records overall, but the Giants are 17-8 at home this season while the Rockies are just 10-12 on the road. The Giants are also better than the Rockies in every phase of the game. They have the better starting pitcher today, the better bullpen, they play better defense and they also have a better offense after taking into account park effects. Tim Lincecum is the Giants starter and he's looked really good overall despite a few rough outings. His peripheral numbers have improved from last season and he's slowly getting back to his old form. Tyler Chatwood goes for the Rockies and he's been a great bet against guy during his career. He's struggled with his confidence and I've never really liked his stuff very much. This game has the Giants written all over it.

4-unit Play Take #966 Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) The Toronto Blue Jays haven't lived up to expectations so far in 2013, but the tide is starting to turn. The Jays have won seven out of 10 games and the offense is really starting to click. During those 10 contests, they have averaged 6.4 runs per game against some pretty good pitching staffs. Today they'll go up against right-hander Chris Tillman of the Orioles. Tillman comes in with a 3.52 ERA in nine starts, but he's been fortunate. His strand rate is very high at 83% and he's walking more than a batter more per nine innings than he did last season. It's time for some regression and a dangerous Blue Jays lineup should be able to arrange that. The Jays go with a rookie making his debut today in Sean Nolin. The young lefty has put up exceptional numbers in the minor leagues. He'll be tough for the Orioles to face since they've never seen him and probably won't have much of a book on him yet. Toronto is rolling and I think they get the job done today as a home underdog. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

4-unit Play Take Ottawa Senators/Pittsburgh Penguins OVER (7:35pm ET) The Ottawa Senators tried to keep the Pittsburgh Penguins at bay in this series, but they finally exploded in Game 4 scoring seven goals. I think the floodgates are open now and there's just no way to keep the pucks out of the back of the net today. The series moves back to Pittsburgh where 12 goals were scored in the first two games of the series. With the Penguins in control 3-1 and at home, I expect them to dictate the pace and attack the zone at will. Craig Anderson is a great goalie, but even he can't stop 40 quality shots each game. Take the Over in this one.

Free MLB Baseball Prediction From Doc’s Sports: Take #904 Detroit (-1.5 RL) over Minnesota (7 p.m., Thursday, May 23) Detroit Tigers starter Rick Porcello is on my list of pitchers to bet on right now as Porcello came out of Spring Training as a guy primed for a much better season in 2013 but struggled a bit out of the gates. That has all changed over the last month as Porcello has been as good as he has ever been in his career. He comes in with an ERA of just 3.24 in his last four starts and a WHIP below 1.00. Even more impressive than those numbers is the fact Porcello has gone three straight starts striking out six batters or more for the first time in his career and has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning during that stretch. This hasn't been coming against bad offenses, either, as his last two starts came against two of the top offenses in all of baseball, the Indians and Rangers. The Tigers once again look to be one of the top teams in baseball this season at home. Detroit also leads both leagues hitting a scorching hot .280 as a team right now. Minnesota has really started to fall apart as they went into Wednesday's game losers of seven straight games overall. They have been outscored by a 43-19 margin in those seven losses. Left-hander Scott Diamond takes the hill for the Twins and comes in off his two worst outings of the season, allowing six earned runs in each game without making it out of the sixth inning in either contest. The high-powered Tigers offense should have little problems here against Diamond. Take Detroit minus the run and a half in this one.

10-unit Play Take #34 Los Angeles Kings over San Jose Sharks (10:35pm ET) The Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks have played a very entertaining series thus far. This series is destined to go seven games because I don't think that either team can win away from home. Not only has the home team prevailed in each of the first four games in this series, but these were two of the best teams at home during the regular season. The Kings were 19-4-1 at home in the regular season, while the Sharks were 17-2-5. Away from home both teams were well below .500, so there's absolutely no reason to expect anything but a home team winner today in Los Angeles. In fact, the home team has won the last nine times these teams have played one another! Take the Kings here today as the trend should continue.

Free MLB Play from Doc’s Sports Take #954 Milwaukee Brewers over Los Angeles Dodgers (1:10pm ET) Two teams experiencing disappointing seasons go at it on Wednesday afternoon as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams check in with 18-26 records putting them in the cellars of their respective divisions. One bright spot for the Dodgers has been starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu. The 26-year old Japanese import is 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in nine starts this season so far. However, it appears as if the league might be catching up to the deceptive ways of Ryu. Over his last three starts he has walked 10 batters in 17 2/3 innings of work and his stuff hasn’t looked as sharp. He’ll face a very good Brewers lineup that hits left-handers hard, so I expect some runs to be scored against Ryu today. Wily Peralta gets the ball for the Brewers. Peralta has pitched much better than his 5.94 ERA indicates as his strand rate is one of the lowest in the league. He keeps the ball on the ground quite a bit, which should help him immensely in Miller Park where the ball can fly out with ease. The Dodgers are 14th in the National League in runs scored, ahead of only the lowly Marlins, so Peralta should fare well here. In the battle of underachievers, I like the Brewers to get the job done at home.

4-unit Play Take #952 New York Mets over Cincinnati Reds (1:10pm ET) One of the best young pitchers in the game goes today in CitiField as the New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds. Matt Harvey has been one of the biggest stories in baseball this season. The 24-year old is 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in nine starts this season and has struck out more than a batter per inning. He hasn't had a single bad outing all season long and that kind of consistency is what you're looking for at the betting window. The Mets are a bad baseball team overall which is why we see a low price on this game. But this team is completely different with Harvey on the mound. Not only does he shut down the opposition, but he also places some extra pressure on the opposing pitcher to step up his game. Mat Latos will be that guy today. Latos has put together a good season overall, but over his last three starts he's been a bit shaky. He has a 5.12 ERA in those outings and two of them were against the Cubs and Marlins - not exactly offensive juggernauts. I expect Harvey to continue to dominate here today and get the win.

3-unit Play Take #972 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm ET) We have a great divisional showdown between the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers this evening. The teams are separated by only 1.5 games in the standings and the Indians are starting to prove that they're in this for the long haul. The Tribe has won five of six and has had some dramatic wins in the process. There is an energy around this team that seems to be contagious and they feel a lot like last year's Baltimore Orioles and Oakland A's teams. They just get the job done when everything is on the line. Today they get a tough matchup with Justin Verlander on the mound for Detroit. But Verlander hasn't been himself over his last couple of starts. He was pounded around in Arlington for eight runs and gave up five walks and four runs to Cleveland last week in the start before that. Verlander will surely right the ship at some point, but this is a great spot to fade him. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the ball for the Indians and he's been amazing lately. In his last four starts he is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, including a gem against the Tigers last week. Jimenez hasn't been the most consistent pitcher over the last couple of seasons, but he's more confident than he's been in a long time and that is enough to get us to the window with this one. Take the Indians as a home underdog here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

4-Unit Pick #503 Take Indiana +8 over Miami (8:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday) We like this pick for many of the same reasons we took the Bulls in Game 1 of their series with Miami. Chicago ended up winning that game straight up, and we expect the Pacers to start strong here as well, and at least keep this game close. Miami has had a long layoff, and they showed in the Bulls series that that long layoff can really halt their momentum. We think that will be the case tonight. And that’s not to mention that the Pacers are a much better team than the Bulls were this season. The Bulls were a ragtag group of barely healthy players (the ones that were on the court and didn’t miss the games), and Indiana is a picture of great health compared to those Bulls. They played the Heat very well this season, winning and covering two of three meetings (both wins were by double-digits). They are the kind of team that the Heat have had trouble with this season (strong rebounding, physical, defensive team), and we think that the Pacers will make a series of this, although we do think the Heat will eventually prevail (that is the main reason we didn’t make a series play on Indiana although we think the price has some value for the Pacers). Just think that the Heat will come out a bit rusty here and that the Pacers will come in ready for battle. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

4-unit Play Take Boston Bruins/New York Rangers UNDER (7:35pm ET) Game 3 goes tonight between the Bruins and Rangers as the series shifts to New York. The Bruins looked impressive in the first two games and it's not desperation time for the Rangers. If it wasn't apparent before the series, the fact that the Rangers can't fly up and down the ice with the Bruins is now a fact. The Rangers stand a much better chance by slowing it down and limiting the quality scoring chances from the Bruins even if it means sacrificing some chances on their end. They've given up a whopping 80 shots in the first two games and allowed eight goals. That is just too much to overcome and I expect the game to be played totally differently in Game 3. This one smells like a 2-1 type game and we like the Under.

10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) Phil Hughes has given up 13 runs in his last two starts and has a ridiculous 18.47 ERA in those outings. In the four starts previous, he had a 1.93 ERA and a 30-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But that's who Hughes is - an inconsistent pitcher who has more than his share of ups and downs. But one thing can definitely be said for Hughes is that he shouldn't be allowed to pitch in Yankee Stadium. He's a right-handed fly ball pitcher, and that's not good in a stadium with a short porch in right field. Today we get him on the road, where he's been more comfortable his entire career. The Baltimore Orioles are sliding a bit lately, losing six straight games. I didn't think this team was as strong as advertised last season, and expected significant regression in 2013. After a hot start, I think we're starting to see it. The ageless Freddy Garcia will get the ball for the O's today, and that's not a good sign. Sweaty Freddy has a 5.51 ERA and is only striking out 3.3 batters per nine innings. He's just a stopgap filling in for injuries right now, so Baltimore would be happy to just get five innings from him each start. The Yankees offense has been surprising this season given all of their injury problems. Now they're starting to get guys back, and that's scary for the rest of the league as the Yankees are in first place at the moment. If this game should happen to come down to bullpens, the Yanks have an advantage there with Robertson and Rivera in the 8th and 9th. I like the Yanks to continue their hot start and get the win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

4-unit Play Take #915 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) One of the more underrated pitchers in the American League takes the mound today in Toronto and it's not Ramon Ortiz. At 25-years old, Alex Cobb is making a name for himself. He put together a solid season and a half coming into 2013, and this year he's raised his game several levels. He's 4-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and is every bit as good as those numbers indicate. He's striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings and has only given up 12 free passes in 53 innings of work. He's also a groundball machine and has a good plan against every batter he faces. He'll go up against a talented but underachieving Blue Jays lineup today. The Jays are just 11th in the AL in runs scored and have scored just four runs more than the Houston Astros. Ortiz will be tasked with slowing down a hot hitting Tampa Bay Rays team today. The Rays have averaged 6.2 runs per game in their last 21 games after a slow start to the season. Ortiz is 40-years old in two days and hasn't pitched more than 35 major league innings in a season since 2007. His career ERA is 4.90 and he surely isn't in his prime at this point. This one could get really ugly, as the Rays should cruise to a victory.

We went big on the over for Game 1 in this series. We got pretty lucky to win that one as there were 58 points scored in the fourth quarter. Before that, 45 was the most that was scored in any of the three previous quarters. There were a ton of points scored in garbage time. As we stated in our writeup for Game 1, we think that that first game had the best chance to go over but that this one would settle into an under series. Based on the results of Game 1 we thought this totals line should have actually been adjusted downward. But the oddsmakers basically posted the same number that we got for Game 1. First of all, the Spurs aren’t likely to score as many points in this game as they did in Game 1. Memphis is the clear-cut best defensive team in the NBA, and this was only the third time in 23 games that a team has scored more than 100 on them. This team will definitely make adjustments on the defensive end, and we don’t think that the Spurs are going to get anywhere near 105 for Game 2. The Spurs hit a franchise-record 14 threes in Game 1. That is the most threes Memphis has allowed in 193 games. The Spurs are not going to shoot that well from long distance two games in a row against this defense. We just don’t think that their offensive numbers will be anywhere near what they were overall in Game 1. And since the Grizzlies were down big almost all game, they were rushing the ball down the court more, which contributed to a late surge for points. We think they are going to slow this game down and make the Spurs beat them with defense. We think that this will be a lot closer game, and we think that the possessions are really going to slow down late in the game as every shot is contested. Pretty sure these teams are not going to have another type of quarter where they scored 58 in Game 1 for the remainder of this series. And we think we are going to see more of the 42-point type quarters we saw for most of Game 1, and we think this series becomes more of a defensive battle here starting with Game 2.

10-unit Play Take #962 San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals (10:15pm ET) It's been a tough year for San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong. At 1-4 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.84 WHIP he's been one of the worst pitchers in the National League. Manager Bruce Bochy has already hinted that this might be his last chance to save his job in the rotation. Vogelsong has never been a great pitcher, but has always gotten the job done and put up decent numbers over the course of his career. He's 35-years old, so he's obviously past his prime, but I think he can get it together and still be effective for the Giants. His peripheral numbers indicate an ERA in the mid-4's, so he is obviously experiencing some bad luck during this stretch. He's pitching at home today and that's where he's been most comfortable over the last few seasons. He'll face a Nationals lineup that hasn't been able to produce much this season. Washington is 13th in runs scored in the league and they're without Jayson Werth and maybe Bryce Harper today. Washington is just 3-6 in their last nine games and this will be their fourth different city in nine days. They're also going with reliever Zach Duke as their starting pitcher today to replace the injured Ross Detwiler. Duke has an 8.40 ERA in nine relief appearances this season and barely made the Washington roster to begin with. He's only pitched one complete season over the last four years, so he's obviously struggled to keep it together recently. I like Vogelsong to come up with a strong start today and get the win over the Nationals.

6-unit Play Take #21 Chicago Blackhawks over Detroit Red Wings (7:35pm ET) The pucks drops on Game 3 tonight between the Chicago Blackhawks and Detroit Red Wings. This is a big one as the series heads back to Detroit tied up at 1-1. The Blackhawks were prohibitive favorites at the outset of the series and you can't let one game change your mind too much. Detroit beat the Hawks 4-1 in Game 2, but it was their first win against Chicago in nine previous tries. The Blackhawks have been the best team in hockey all season long and they've responded whenever they needed to. This is the biggest game of the year thus far and I expect them to come through once again. Take Chicago here as our 6-unit Game.