MIT Simulator - NFL Sunday Steelers vs Jaguars Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Pittsburgh 22.77, Jacksonville 21.89 - Projected Margin of Victory: 0.88 - Current Line: 8.5 - Variance to Line: 7.62 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 7.62 points. Value in excess of full touchdown. Projected box-score shows Steelers rushing edge of 15.78 yards in excess of Jaguars rushing total. Key factors noted: Pittsburgh off of big win over division rival Baltimore last week. That makes this a flat spot for the Steelers. The Jaguars already had their flat spot as it was last week when they lost to the hapless Jets. The Jags were jet-lagged after their big win at London over the Ravens the prior week. The Jaguars are 2-1 (with the loss being the 3 point loss to the Jets) in their 3 games played away from Jacksonville this season. The Steelers are laying big points here considering the situation and the fact they are averaging a modest 22.5 points per game this season. Jacksonville has scored at least 16 points in all their games and they should get in the 20-range here which, in turn, should keep them "within the number" here. The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS as a dog in the point-spread range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Both teams are strong defending the pass but the Jags have the much stronger rushing attack (148.8 yards per game) so far this season. Projected box-score shows Steelers passing edge of 12.24 yards in excess of Jaguars passing total. Total edge for Pittsburgh of only 28.02 total yards equating to victory by just the slimmest of margins - 0.88 points - per MIT Simulator. Play: JAGUARS