MIT Simulator - NFL Thursday Cowboys vs Redskins Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Dallas 27.67, Washington 20.06 - Projected Margin of Victory: 7.61 - Current Line: +2.5 - Variance to Line: 10.11 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 10.11 points. Value in double digits! Projected box-score shows Cowboys rushing edge of 30.73 yards in excess of Redskins rushing total. Key factors noted: The Cowboys rushing attack is ranked 4th in the NFL while the Redskins run defense is ranked only in the middle of the pack in the NFL. Even though Dallas is without Ezekiel Elliott they have still run the ball well recently and Alfred Morris is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry on the season. Also, with Dak Prescott in the pocket, the Redskins defense still has to respect the pass too plus they have to watch for Prescott's scrambling ability. The Redskins strength on offense is the passing game but the Cowboys are better on defense against the pass than the run. This sets up well for Dallas in terms of a mismatch with Washington in this one. Also, Dallas is very angry after 3 straight losses where their offense has had ugly performances. The Cowboys are on a 34-22 SU run in home games with an O/U in a range of 45. to 49.5 points. The Redskins are on a long-term 60-93 ATS run as a favorite. Projected box-score shows Dallas passing edge of 41.85 yards in excess of Washington passing total. MIT Simulator composite forecast equating to an "upset" win here for Dallas by 7.61 points. Play: COWBOYS