MIT Simulator - NCAAF Saturday New Mexico State vs South Alabama Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Aggies 28.78, Jaguars 27.87 - Projected Margin of Victory: 0.91 - Current Line: +10 - Variance to Line: 9.09 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 9.09 points. Value nearly double digits! Projected box-score shows New Mexico State passing edge of 21.13 yards in excess of South Alabama passing total. Key factors noted: New Mexico State needs a win to become bowl eligible and have their first shot at a bowl game in over 55 years! However, the Aggies ended up with a pretty tough draw here in the final game of the season. Even though South Alabama is only 4-7 on the season, you know this Jaguars team is going to go all out for coach Joey Jones. It is his final game here and he has been their coach since the inception of the football program in 2009! The players are going to go "all out " for Jones in this one. The Jags were thoroughly embarrassed by Georgia Southern two weeks ago 52-0. They'll bring a strong effort here as a result as they come off of the bye week too for added energy and South Alabama is 5-1 ATS as a dog off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points. Last week's non-covering win versus Idaho dropped New Mexico State to 3-18 ATS when they are a favorite of more than 4 points and are playing with revenge. Also, the Aggies entered this season 0-9 ATS when facing an opponent off of a SU loss as a favorite. The Jaguars were favored by nearly a TD in their embarrassing loss to the Eagles in their most recent game! Some impressive systems supporting the Jags here. Projected box-score shows Aggies rushing edge of 13.55 yards in excess of Jaguars rushing total. Combined edge of 34.68 total yards for the favorite equating to a win by the slimmest of margins (0.91 points) per MIT Simulator which equates to solid line value with the big underdog. Play: SOUTH ALABAMA