MIT Simulator - NCAAF Saturday Arkansas State vs Troy Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Red Wolves 35.71, Trojans 24.63 - Projected Margin of Victory: 11.08 - Current Line: +1 - Variance to Line: 12.08 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 12.08 points. Value is a dozen points! Projected box-score shows Arkansas State passing edge of 68.41 yards in excess of Troy passing total. Key factors noted: The Trojans have revenge from last season's loss to the Red Wolves but this game is just as important to Arkansas State as a first place finish in the SBC is on the line in this one. The Red Wolves have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings and also have a big edge on offense in this match-up. Though Troy has the edge on defense, the key variable is likely to be the strength of the Arkansas State passing game in this one. Of course the Red Wolves also have the home field edge and they are better overall in terms of special teams play as well. Arkansas State is on a 16-4 ATS run when off of a win in SBC action. Troy is only 4-9 ATS when off of a win in a conference game. Projected box-score shows Red Wolves rushing edge of 33.72 yards in excess of Trojans rushing total. Combined edge of 102.13 total yards equating to a win by 11.08 points per MIT Simulator. Play: ARKANSAS STATE