MIT Simulator - NFL Thursday Falcons vs Saints Winner
MIT Simulator Score - New Orleans 28.89, Atlanta 21.87 - Projected Margin of Victory: 7.02 - Current Line: +1 - Variance to Line: 8.02 - MIT Simulator calculates Edge Factor of 8.02 points. Value in excess of a touchdown! Projected box-score shows Saints rushing edge of 36.27 yards in excess of Falcons rushing total. Key factors noted: Saints are the better team this season and at the top of the NFC South standings. The New Orleans defense has improved and they continue to have one of the top offenses in the league. The Saints also have revenge from getting swept by the Falcons last season for the 2nd time in 3 seasons. Payback time here and the Falcons are only 6-16 ATS as a home favorite. Atlanta lost outright as a small home fave versus the Vikings last week and managed only 9 points. That holds significance here as the Falcons under head coach Dan Quinn, when they have a winning record on the season and are heading into a game off of a SU loss as a fave, have gone 1-8 ATS! That makes this an 89% ATS spot favoring the Saints! Projected box-score shows New Orleans passing edge of 38.51 yards in excess of Atlanta passing total. MIT Simulator composite forecast equating to a yardage edge of 74.78 yards and an "upset" win here for Saints by 7.02 points. Play: NEW ORLEANS