MIT Simulator - NCAAF Saturday Troy vs North Texas Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Trojans 38.94, Mean Green 24.03 - Projected Margin of Victory: 14.91 - Current Line: 7 - Variance to Line: 7.91 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 7.91 points. Value is a full TD! Projected box-score shows Troy passing edge of 68.36 yards in excess of North Texas passing total. Key factors noted: The Trojans had a poor effort on defense in their most recent game but one game shouldn't fully take away from what the Troy defensive unit has been doing for much of this season. The Trojans had held their opponents under 310 yards in 5 of their 6 prior games! Prior to that Troy also had upset LSU and did play quite well against Boise State early in the season. For the year, Troy never allowed more than 25 points in a game! North Texas comes into this game having given up more than 25 points in 9 of their last 12 games. You can see the big difference between the defenses of these teams as the Trojans are allowing only 17.5 points per game this season while the Mean Green allow 33.8 points per game! The loss of RB Jeffrey Wilson is a big one for North Texas. It was only 2 years ago that the Mean Green were a 1-11 team. Certainly they've improved a lot but UNT is not on par with Troy. The Trojans are 3-0 SU and ATS this season against teams with a winning record and get the job done one more time Saturday! Projected box-score shows Trojans rushing edge of 61.52 yards in excess of Mean Green rushing total. Total edge of 129.88 total yards for the TD favorite equating to blowout victory by 14.91 points per MIT Simulator. Play: TROY