MIT Simulator - NCAAF Sunday Fresno State vs Houston Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Bulldogs 28.86, Cougars 21.30 - Projected Margin of Victory: 7.56 - Current Line: +2 - Variance to Line: 9.56 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 9.56 points. Value is nearly double digits! Projected box-score shows Fresno State passing edge of 59.37 yards in excess of Houston passing total. Key factors noted: Fresno State is familiar with playing in Hawaii. Not only will the Bulldogs be playing in the Hawaii Bowl for the 3rd time since 2012, Fresno State also played in Hawaii earlier this season when they beat the Warriors here. Certainly this is a bit of an edge for the Bulldogs and it also helps that Houston is without their offensive coordinator as Brian Johnson is no longer with the Cougars and now headed to the Gators in Florida. With Fresno State enjoying a huge resurgence under former Cal coach Jeff Tedford, the momentum of a 9-4 season should carry them to a win here as they end their bowl losing streak. That is a big motivator for the Bulldogs here and Fresno State has a large edge on defense here. The Bulldogs allowed only 320.8 yards per game this season while the Cougars D allowed 417.5 yards per game. Fresno State is on a 9-1 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and a 6-0 ATS run this season as an underdog. Projected box-score shows Bulldogs rushing edge of 17.84 yards in excess of Cougars rushing total. Combined edge of 77.21 total yards equating to an upset win by 7.56 points per MIT Simulator. Play: FRESNO STATE