MIT Simulator - NCAAB Wednesday Arkansas vs LSU Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Razorbacks 82.61, Tigers 81.75 - Projected Margin of Victory: 0.86 - Current Line: +9 - Variance to Line: 8.14 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 8.14 points. Value is nearly double digits! Key factors noted: LSU has lost 3 straight in this series including getting blown out by double digits in each of the last two games at Arkansas. However, this season the Tigers are statistically equal to the Razorbacks. Offensively these two teams are very nearly identical in terms of shooting percentages and defensively it is the same story. With that said, there is value here in a game where the Razorbacks are being over-valued by much more than just home court and, in this case, home court is arguably the only edge they have. Look for the Tigers to be in this one all the way. LSU certainly remembers their last meeting with Arkansas. The Tigers were up by 9 at the half but lost the game by 8 due to poor shooting in the 2nd half. For the game LSU outrebounded the Razorbacks by 20 boards and they are ready to avenge that frustrating loss here. The Tigers are 4-2 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record and, the past 2 seasons they've gone 3-1 ATS in games projected to be high-scoring (O/U in the 160s). Arkansas is 3-6 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and already an ugly 0-3 ATS in SEC games. Net edge factors for Razorbacks equating to victory by the slimmest of margins (0.86 points) per MIT Simulator. Play: LSU