MIT Simulator - NFL Super Bowl Sunday Eagles vs Patriots O/U Winner
MIT Simulator Score - New England 20.93, Philadelphia 16.04 - Projected Total Points: 36.97 - Current O/U: 48.5 - Variance to O/U: 11.53 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 11.53 points. Value is nearly a dozen points! Key factors noted: Patriots O/U is 4-10 their last 14 games and that includes 1-6 their last 7 games played away from New England. Eagles O/U is 3-6 their last 9 games and Philadelphia has allowed only 8.25 points per game in their last 4 games. Eagles are a team that is very strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their front seven on defense is likely to cause some problems in terms of pressuring Pats QB Tom Brady. Philadelphia's offensive line is also a very powerful strength on the team and the Eagles will look to use their ground game to run the clock and move the chains with long drives to keep the ball out of Brady's hands. The last time these teams met in the Super Bowl (13 years ago) the game stayed under the total. That started a trend that has cashed 6 of 7 times to the under in the Super Bowl. Since 13 years ago, when the spread on the Super Bowl is 4 points or more, the O/U is 1-6. With each head coach having a lot of respect for their opponents offensive weaponry, this will be a game of keep-away where each team's biggest goal is to run clock and try to move the ball on the ground and to avoid getting into a shootout. That is why it is no surprise that the Simulator is forecasting a solid under here. Projected box-score shows Patriots and Eagles combining for 182.94 yards of rushing total. Projected box-score shows New England and Philadelphia combining for 377.60 yards of passing total. Combined yardage of 560.54 total yards equating to 36.97 points per MIT Simulator. Play: UNDER