MIT Simulator - NCAAB Saturday Duke vs Virginia Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Cavaliers 70.77, Blue Devils 65.26 - Projected Margin of Victory: 5.51 - Current Line: +5 - Variance to Line: 10.51 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 10.51 points. Value is double digits! Key factors noted: Fantastic match-up between two great teams with very different styles. Look for the Cavaliers defense to be the difference. While the Blue Devils possess the much more potent offense, Duke does allow 72.7 points per game while Virginia is allowing only 51.6 points per game this season! That, of course, has played a key role in the Cavs producing a 13-4 ATS mark this season. Despite playing an even tougher early season schedule than Duke, the Cavaliers are now a 5 point dog in this one as the early market move has been toward the home favorite. The Blue Devils are on a 10-20 ATS run in Saturday games including just 1-5 ATS this season. Virginia is 32-17 ATS (including 10-3 ATS this season) when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Look for the Cavs vaunted defense to continue to be a difference maker in this one. With that said, the above makes for an ideal set-up leading into this one with maximum value on the road dog. Net edge factors for Cavaliers equating to upset victory by 5.51 points per MIT Simulator. Play: VIRGINIA