MIT Simulator - NBA Saturday Nuggets vs Mavericks Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Dallas 106.22, Denver 103.85 - Projected Margin of Victory: 2.37 - Current Line: +8 - Variance to Line: 10.37 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 10.37 points. Value is double digits! Key factors noted: Dallas is off of an ugly home loss to Portland last night but the difference in the game was the simple fact that the Mavericks shot poorly. The Mavs took 10 more shots from the field than the Blazers but lost the game by 14 points because they made only 39.3% of their shots. Earlier this season the Mavericks dominated the Nuggets by 17 in Dallas and then early last week they lost by just 3 points at Denver. That means we have a lot of line value to work with here as the Nuggets are content off of back to back wins while the Mavs are hungry off of back to back losses and also looking to avenge the loss at Denver on the 16th .The Nuggets have allowed opponents to hit 48.7% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. The Mavericks defense struggled versus Portland last night but previously held 6 of their 8 prior opponents to 46.5% or less from the field. The Mavs are 19-11 ATS as an underdog this season. Dallas is 4-1 ATS this season after playing their 3 prior games at home. The Nuggets are a poor 4-10 SU and ATS when off of a win by 10 or more points in their previous game. Net edge factors for the underdog Mavericks equating to upset victory by 2.37 points per MIT Simulator. Play: DALLAS