MIT Simulator - NCAAB Saturday San Diego State vs Air Force Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Aztecs 72.87, Falcons 68.52 - Projected Margin of Victory: 4.35 - Current Line: +16 - Variance to Line: 11.65 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 11.65 points. Value is nearly a dozen points! Key factors noted: San Diego State guard Trey Kell is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. He is one of only two seniors that are playing at least a dozen minutes a game. In fact, Kell is 2nd on the team in assist, 4th on the team in points, and 3rd on the team in minutes. This is a very big line here considering that the Aztecs have allowed an average of 81 points per game in their last 5 games and have given up at least 48% from the field in 4 of the 5 games. Granted Air Force is not a very good team this season and they are not known for putting up big points but the continued lapses on the defensive end for San Diego State are likely to help the Falcons "hang around" in this game. Also, Air Force is on a 6-1 ATS run because, even though they've been losing they've been very competitive. In fact, only 1 of those 7 games was decided by more than a dozen points and that is why there is value with the big line here. The Falcons are only 1-2 in their last 3 meetings with San Diego State but each Aztecs win was by 13 points or less. As a road dog of 15.5 to 18 points, Air Force is 19-8 ATS. San Diego State is only 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 15.5 to 18 points. Net edge factors for Aztecs equating to a game decided by just a couple buckets per MIT Simulator. Play: AIR FORCE