MIT Simulator - NCAAB Saturday Dayton vs GW Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Colonials 72.68, Flyers 65.87 - Projected Margin of Victory: 6.81 - Current Line: +5 - Variance to Line: 11.81 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 11.81 points. Value is a dozen points! Key factors noted: Dayton is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games. Even though this is their regular season finale and home finale, the Flyers are hosting a Colonials team that wants this game just as bad as they do. That's because these teams are tied in the Atlantic Ten standings. The difference here is that George Washington is playing the much better basketball. The Colonials are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 games. Dayton is the better shooting team but George Washington is the better team on the defensive end and, at this time of the year, defense is key. The Colonials are 9-2 SU and 7-2 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. The Flyers, surprisingly, are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record. It may be tempting to back Dayton to snap their ATS skid here but this has been a trend in recent seasons. When the Flyers enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 or more games they have gone 3-9 ATS. Even if the Flyers find a way to win, expect it to be another non-cover. Net edge factors for Colonials equating to upset victory by 6.81 points per MIT Simulator. Play: GEORGE WASHINGTON