MIT Simulator - NCAAB Wednesday St Mary's (CA) vs Utah Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Gaels 79.56, Utes 61.41 - Projected Margin of Victory: 18.15 - Current Line: 6 - Variance to Line: 12.15 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 12.15 points. Value is a dozen points! Key factors noted: Home court edge is big here as St Mary's is averaging 78.7 points per game at home (where they hit 43% of their threes) while Utah is averaging just 68.5 points per game on the road this season. Also, the Utes allow 72.7 points per game away from home while the Gaels allow only 60.9 points per game as a host. This strong home/road dichotomy doesn't appear to be properly factored into this line and that is what the simulation has picked up on as well as a rout is in the forecast. St Mary's did open up at a 6.5 in some books and the Gaels are 4-0 SU and ATS the last 4 times they've been a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points. The Gaels are 18-1 SU at home this season and 8 of the Utes 11 losses this season were by a margin of at least a dozen points. With that said, the odds favor that a St Mary's SU win here is also an ATS victory! Utah is on a 1-4 ATS run in NIT games and the Utes also a long-term poor 9-17 ATS as a road dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Net edge factors for Gaels equating to blowout victory by 18.15 points per MIT Simulator. Play: ST MARY'S