MIT Simulator - MLB Thursday Phillies vs Marlins Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Philadelphia 4.97, Miami 3.55 - Projected Margin: 1.42 - Current Money Line: -152 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of nearly 1.5 runs making run line a "toss up" but money line worthy of investment here. Projected box-score shows Phillies outhitting Marlins by 3.07 hits. Key factors noted: Southpaw Caleb Smith had a strong start for the Marlins last week but that was at home. The young southpaw had a 7.71 ERA last season in 9 MLB games (2 starts). Smith remains unproven at this level. The Phillies Nick Pivetta struggled in his first start this season but that was on the road. This is the Phillies home opener and Pivetta pitched better at home than on the road last season. Also, Pivetta went 6-4 with a solid 3.65 ERA in day games last season. Miami was projected to be one of the worst teams in the majors coming into this season and they've started 2-4 even though all those games were at home. Now they take to the road and the simulation shows the Phillies being worth the price in this spot. Projected box-score shows Phillies outhitting Marlins by 1.42 extra base hits. Combination of hits (including extra base hits) equating to margin of 1.42 runs in favor of Philadelphia per MIT Simulator. Play: PHILLIES