Houston opened as one-point favorites, but is now getting 3.5 points. It looks like Patrick Mahomes will give it a go and try to play with a high ankle sprain. Even with Mahomes under center all season, the Kansas City offense has not been blowing out other teams, but has been finding ways to win close games. Four of their last five wins have been by three or fewer points. The Texans are still fighting for playoff position, and Stroud now has Nico Collins healthy. L liked Houston after last Sunday and I like them even more at this number. The Texans, they’re 9-5 this season, but they’ve only lost three games by more than 3.0 points. As for the Chiefs, they’re 13-1, but are just 9-5 against this number of -3.5 points. Houston will be able to get pressure on Mahomes from the outside and with the ankle I don’t see Mahomes being able to effectively get out of the pocket and make Mahomes plays.

Play on Houston. This is a 5% play.