PREMIUM
NFL - Bears @ Lions
(NFL) Bears (CHI) vs. Lions (DET),
Total: 47.50 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
Total: 47.50 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
I’m on the over of 47.5 points in this divisional matchup in Detroit on Thanksgiving for these reasons:
- Lions are averaging 21+ points allowed in their last 4 Thanksgiving games, and they’re favored by 9.5. So if you believe in the Lions covering, you have to take the Over based on that. Need more? Well, the Lions have only kept the Jags under 14 points at home, while allowing an average of 17 points in Detroit (If you don’t count the incompetence of Jacksonville, they’ve allowed exactly 20 points to opponents at home.). We need 3 TDS from Chicago and I’m banking on that, while slightly skeptical on the Lions to win by 10.
- Carlton Davis is out. Bombs away for the pass heavy Bears, who will be down and chasing points from the get go. Lions give up big chunk plays, and Bears are top 5 in plays per game, so there’s opportunity for both teams to have a lot of possession this game.
- 3 of the last 4 games The Lions have only had 1 sack (can’t include Houston QB CJ Shroud getting sacked 4 times because he’s a top 3 most sacked QB). Caleb is the most sacked QB but that’s because they have a lot of plays per game to throw the ball, and it helps a lot that he’s mobile and should be able to scurry around this lions team that gives the most average of yards to QBs.
- This matchup is 3-2 to the over of this number in Detroit.
- Goff should have an easy time throwing here because of the worry the Bears will have to stop the run. Play action downfield is going to be available and he has the personnel to get into the red zone quickly. Bears have allowed 21 points on the road, and the Lions are the leading scoring team in the league. Book them to get near 30 here. 27 - 21 Lions Win
Official Play: Over 47.5
Side Bet: Caleb Williams over 1.5 passing TDs
Hail Mary: Bears +9.5
- Lions are averaging 21+ points allowed in their last 4 Thanksgiving games, and they’re favored by 9.5. So if you believe in the Lions covering, you have to take the Over based on that. Need more? Well, the Lions have only kept the Jags under 14 points at home, while allowing an average of 17 points in Detroit (If you don’t count the incompetence of Jacksonville, they’ve allowed exactly 20 points to opponents at home.). We need 3 TDS from Chicago and I’m banking on that, while slightly skeptical on the Lions to win by 10.
- Carlton Davis is out. Bombs away for the pass heavy Bears, who will be down and chasing points from the get go. Lions give up big chunk plays, and Bears are top 5 in plays per game, so there’s opportunity for both teams to have a lot of possession this game.
- 3 of the last 4 games The Lions have only had 1 sack (can’t include Houston QB CJ Shroud getting sacked 4 times because he’s a top 3 most sacked QB). Caleb is the most sacked QB but that’s because they have a lot of plays per game to throw the ball, and it helps a lot that he’s mobile and should be able to scurry around this lions team that gives the most average of yards to QBs.
- This matchup is 3-2 to the over of this number in Detroit.
- Goff should have an easy time throwing here because of the worry the Bears will have to stop the run. Play action downfield is going to be available and he has the personnel to get into the red zone quickly. Bears have allowed 21 points on the road, and the Lions are the leading scoring team in the league. Book them to get near 30 here. 27 - 21 Lions Win
Official Play: Over 47.5
Side Bet: Caleb Williams over 1.5 passing TDs
Hail Mary: Bears +9.5
