I’m on the Commanders -3.5 at home vs the Falcons for these reasons:

- The Falcons season could be over as soon as the Buccaneers beat the Panthers in the afternoon slot. What do they really have to play for, while the Commanders could still clinch a playoff win with a victory here. Side with the home team who have better implications to make the post season.

- I like this Commanders defense vs a rookie QB making his second start. Penix didn’t look that good in his debut vs a bad saints team, but now has to play a Commanders team that has been hot and cold, but have the elements (cold Washington climate vs a Dome Team) and the more experienced and talented QB on offense to put this Falcons team (that I think is poorly coached) on their heels.

- Falcons defense isn’t spectacular, and the Running defense is very mid tier. The running lanes should be open often for Daniels and Robinson Jr, which also breaks things open for the deep pass.

- Plan on the Commanders to lock down the run and force the Young Falcons QB to make plays with his arm, and that’ll lead to turnovers that the Commanders will avoid.

Official Play: Commanders -3.5

Side Bet: Under 46

Hail Mary: Jaden Daniel’s over 47.5 rushing yards