Leverkusen is coming into this match with a heavy trend to the over in their recent matches. They are coming off of a 1-1 away draw with Bayern in their last match, but prior to that they had seen 4+ goals total in their last 4 straight as well as 6 of their last 7 matches. Their attack has been on fire in these as they have scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches and at least 4 goals in 3 of their last 4, but their defense has also struggled recently, allowing 4 goals in their last 2 matches as well. They have only played in 2 home matches this season across all competitions and both matches had 5+ goals total in them, Leverkusen scoring 6 goals and allowing 6 goals in those 2 matches. They are going up against an AC Milan side that has also been trending more to the over in their recent matches. They have seen 3+ goals total in their last 9 straight matches, going back before the season started, and their attack has been very good in these. They have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 2 as well as 4 of their last 5 matches, and they are going to have some confidence coming into this match as they have won 2 straight as well as 3 of their last 4 matches, including a win over their rivals Inter Milan. They are coming off of a clean sheet in their last match as well, but that was against a much weaker Lecce side. Prior to that match, they had conceded a goal in 7 of their last 8 matches and allowed at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 6. AC Milan has been in better form recently so they are going to have some confidence here and will be pushing their attack for goals as they need some points after losing their 1st match at home 3-1 to Liverpool. AC Milan will find the net on this Leverkusen defense that has been conceding a lot of goals, but Leverkusen also has a very potent attack themselves and they are going to find the net on this Milan defense that has not been great. Between these two sides, there will be enough goals in this match to push it over 3 goals.
UEFA Champions League: Bayer Leverkusen/AC Milan over 3 goals, Rot. 224225