Luis Severino is starting for the Mets in this game and he is 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA this season. He has not been pitching great in his recent starts as he allowed 4 earned runs in his last start and has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts as well. He has been much worse on the road as well, allowing at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 as well as 5 of his last 6 road starts, and he allowed at least 4 earned runs in 4 of those 6 road starts as well. He has also faced the Brewers just 1 time this season and it was an awful start, allowing 6 runs, 3 earned, and 11 hits in only 5 innings. The Mets do not have a great bullpen either as they are only middle of the pack, and they also had to play yesterday against the Braves in a double header just to get into the playoffs so they are at a big disadvantage with their pitching here. Freddy Peralta is starting for the Brewers in this game and he is 11-9 with a 3.68 ERA this season. He has been pitching very well recently as he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 3 as well as 6 of his last 8 starts, allowing no more than 3 earned runs in any of those starts. He has also been great at home as he has allowed 1 earned run or less in 3 of his last 5 starts there, allowing no more than 3 earned runs in any of those starts as well. He has only faced the Mets once this season, but it was on the road and he only allowed 1 earned run and just 1 hit in 6 innings. Offensively, both of these teams are pretty even in the hitting and runs department so the difference here is going to be with pitching and the Brewers have a significant advantage with both their starter and their bullpen which is a top 3 bullpen in the league. The Brewers will win this game at home and secure game 1 of this series.