Texas State is coming into this game with a 2-2 record this season and they have lost their last 2 straight games. They went into their bye week off of a 31-28 loss against Arizona State and now they are coming off of a 40-39 loss against Sam Houston in their last game. Their defense blew a big lead in that game as Sam Houston was never leading until they took a 40-39 lead at the end to win, but Texas State is going to be hungry to bounce back here and this is their 1st conference game of the season so they still have everything to play for. They are going up against a Troy team that is 1-4 this season and their only win came against an FCS team. They are coming off of a 13-9 loss at home against Louisiana Monroe in their last game, and that was also their 1st conference game of the season. Their offense struggled a lot in that game as they only scored 9 points at home, and they are not going to play any better here. Texas State has been allowing a lot of points on defense, but they have not been allowing a lot of yards in their games so they will be better in this game as Troy is going to struggle to move the ball. Troy has been efficient in the passing game this year, averaging 189 yards per game with a 64.7% completion percentage on an average of 23.8 passes per game, but Texas State has not been bad as they are allowing 207.5 passing yards per game and only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 51.9% of their passes. Troy is more of a run heavy team as they are averaging 33.8 rushing attempts per game, but only 143.4 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. Texas State has actually been much better with their run defense, allowing 128.8 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry, so they will be able to stop this Troy run game and without success there, this Troy offense is not going to be able to do much. Troy has not been good on defense themselves either, specifically their run defense which is allowing 175.2 yards per game and 5 yards per carry. Texas State has a very good run game that averages 157.8 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry so they are going to find success running the ball here and that will open up the passing game which has also been very good. Troy will not be able to stop this offense and they are going to struggle to move the ball themselves in this game. Texas State will cover the spread in this game.