Cagliari is coming into this match with a slight trend to the over in their recent matches. They have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4 matches and their attack has been great in these, but their defense not so much. They have scored 7 goals in their last 4 matches, averaging close to 2 goals scored per match in that span, but their defense has also allowed at least 2 goals in each of their last 2 as well as 3 of their last 4 matches. When playing at home, this trend has been much stronger as they have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3 league matches there. Their defense has been awful in these as they have allowed at least 2 goals in each of those 3 matches, but they did score 3 goals in their last home match and have been in better form recently with 3 wins in their last 5 matches. They are going up against a Bologna side that has not been trending to the over in their recent matches, but they have been trending to the over in their league matches. They have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 league matches, but this trend has been stronger away from home as well. When playing away from home, they have gone over 2.5 goals in all 4 of their league away matches this season. Their defense has been awful in those as they have allowed at least 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 away matches in the league, but including their Champions League matches they have actually allowed at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches this season. Their attack has been much better in the league though, scoring at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 league away matches as well. Cagliari has been in much better form recently with a stronger attack as well so they are going to find the net at home against this Bologna defense that has struggled to keep teams out away from home, and Bologna has also been playing a lot of matches between the league, Champions League, and Coppa Italia so fatigue is going to settle in as well which will result in lapses on defense. Bologna has also been scoring goals in these league away matches though and Cagliari does not have a good defense that has been keeping clean sheets. Even the last 3 straight league meetings between these two have gone over 2.5 goals. Between these two sides, there will be enough goals in this match to push it over 2.5 goals.
Italy Serie A: Cagliari/Bologna over 2.5 goals, Rot. 201393