Indiana State is coming into this game with a 4-4 record this season and this is not the same team that did so well last season. A lot of those starters have left the team and they are also in the 1st season of a new head coach. They have not been playing that well recently as they have lost 2 of their last 3 games, losses coming to Southern Indiana and Arkansas State. They are coming off of a win against Iona in their last game, but they only won that game by 3 points. They have not had a very tough schedule this season either, the only big school they played being FAU which they lost by over 30 points. Their defense has not been good in recent games either, allowing 80+ points in their last 3 straight as well as 4 of their last 5 games. They also average 77.5 points allowed per game this season which ranks in the bottom 60 of the country. They are going up against a Tarleton State team that is 2-6 this season and they also lost a lot of starters from that great team last season, but their head coach is still there and he will be looking to rebuild this team this season. They are 2-6 but only 2 of their 8 games this season have been at home and they have also played a very tough schedule with road losses to much bigger schools like Michigan, Baylor, Florida State, and SMU. They lost their 1st game in this tournament to Iona by 11 points, but now they are coming off of a win in their last game against Hofstra. The defense has also been much better for Tarleton State, they are still averaging a lot of points allowed per game due to their stronger schedule, but they have held both of their opponents in this tournament to 62 points or less. Tarleton State will have an easier time against a weaker team like Indiana State here. Tarleton State will cover the spread in this game.