The Lightning are coming into this game with a 25-16-3 record this season and they have been playing well in their recent games. They have won their last 2 straight as well as 3 of their last 4 games, but their last 2 wins both came at home and their 3 wins in that span have been against much weaker teams as all 3 wins have come against a team that is 2nd to last in their division. Their last loss actually came on the road against the Bruins 6-2 and they have been much worse on the road recently as they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games. They have lost to some of the worst teams in the league in that span as well and their offense has also been awful in those games, scoring 2 goals or less in 5 of their last 6 road games. They are going up against a Leafs team that is 29-16-2 this season and they have been playing much better in their recent games. They hit a bit of a snag recently with 3 straight losses which has been uncommon for them this season, but they have bounced back in their last 2 games with 2 straight wins. They were down 3-2 late against the Devils and came back to win that game in OT 4-3, and now they are coming off of another comeback win in their last game as they were down 3-0 in Montreal and ended up winning 7-3. Those 2 games and the way they won them have them playing with a lot of confidence right now and the Lightning are a team they have been beating up on this season, winning both meetings with them. The Leafs will win this game at home.