This game will be closer than most think as Iowa has the defense and capability to score first and slow this pace right down so that Penn State is playing the Hawkeyes game, a slow, bruising, grinding defensive rock battle. Iowa has kept opposing teams to 12 points or less on offense so far this season and QB McNamara is improving in every game along with their offense. Penn State was able to beat Illinois on the road but this Illinois team does not have the same good defense that last year's team has. This will be the best defensive team that the Nittany Lions have played and it will be like playing into a brick wall. This is too many points for a good team like Iowa and they may even win the game outright. Take them to at least cover the spread in this game. Head to head, these two teams have played in one score games in their last five games, and in the last two most recent games, Iowa won both games on the road.

Iowa is 7-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Penn State off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 4-4 ATS in the last three seasons and off a double digit road win, they are 1-2 ATS. Penn State after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 2-5 ATS in the last three seasons. Penn State are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Iowa are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road. Iowa are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.

Best bet: take the points with Iowa.