This is too many points on the road for a good Arkansas State team who have found their quarterback. This Sun Belt battle should be a lot closer between them. Though Troy won the conference title last season, they haven’t been as potent this season. This is a great spot for Arkansas State to give the Trojans a game.

ARKANSAS ST is 5-1 against the spread versus TROY since 1992 when playing at Troy. The Red Wolves after playing a non-conference game are 2-1 ATS this season and 8-3 ATS in the last three seasons. The Red Wolves off an upset win as an underdog are 1-0 ATS this season and 2-0 ATS in the last three seasons. The Red Wolves after a win by 17 or more points are 3-1 ATS in the last three seasons. Arkansas St after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins are 2-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS in the last three seasons. Troy in home games this season are 0-3 ATS and 6-10 ATS in the last three seasons. Troy after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins are 8-2 ATS in the last three seasons.

Best bet: take the points with Arkansas State.