This game looks like it will lean to the over. Valdez did not look good in his previous game where he allowed 5 earned runs, 3 walks and he left after four innings. If his confidence is shaken early again, look for the bullpen to step in and give up runs as well. Houston's offense is strong enough to get some runs off of Eovaldi who hasn't fared well against the Astros in the past. This game has all the markings of breaking out into an offensive showdown. Texas after shutting out their opponent are 11-2 to the Over and after a game with a combined score of 2 runs or less are 9-2 to the Over this season. Valdez at home when the money line is +125 to -125 is 2-0 to the Over this season and 5-0 to the Over in the last three seasons.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas' last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games against Texas. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Texas. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games against an opponent in the American League.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.