New Mexico State can see their bowl game if they get the win today they are almost there. They will be super focused and under Jerry Kill, have started to string up some wins in the second half of the season and Pavia has looked flawless in this last couple of games. New Mexico St. is 10-2 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Middle Tennessee just hasn't had a good season as they lost a lot in production in the portal, and in this rebuilding year they haven't been able to string any wins together or get any momentum going. Their defense has allowed so many points per game and they haven't been able to convert on third downs all season. Their 2-6 record says it all. Take the better team who are great at home this season.

New Mexico State are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. New Mexico State are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home. Middle Tennessee are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. Middle Tennessee are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference. NM St is 8-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.

Best bet: lay the small number with New Mexico State.