Quarterback advantage: The Saints will start Spencer Rattler due to Derek Carr's injury13. This gives Tampa Bay a significant edge with the more experienced Baker Mayfield at quarterback.

Offensive production: The Buccaneers rank 10th in points scored (25.4 per game) and have been efficient on offense. In contrast, the Saints have struggled offensively in recent weeks, scoring 13 or fewer points in two of their last three games.
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Saints' offensive decline: New Orleans has lost three straight games after a hot start, and their offense has cooled significantly. This trend favors Tampa Bay covering the spread.

Buccaneers' passing attack: Tampa Bay has been effective through the air, with Baker Mayfield throwing for 1,164 yards and 11 touchdowns1. They could exploit the Saints' pass defense.

Tampa Bay is 4-0-1 ATS after a Thursday Game and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in the 2nd of BB Division games.