The Milwaukee Brewers are positioned well to deliver value as modest home favorites at -119 against the Reds. While Nestor Cortes Jr. had a disastrous first outing, his track record suggests he's more than capable of bouncing back. He’s a savvy left-hander with strong strikeout stuff and experience under pressure. Milwaukee’s coaching staff will likely have made the necessary adjustments, and pitching at home in a more comfortable setting should allow Cortes to reset and find his rhythm.

On the other side, Nick Lodolo has shown promise for Cincinnati, but he’s still relatively young and can be vulnerable on the road, especially against a Brewers lineup that has been opportunistic early in the season. Milwaukee has shown they can generate offense in key spots, and with the home crowd behind them, they should be able to capitalize on any Lodolo mistakes.

Factor in bullpen depth and Milwaukee’s tendency to play well at American Family Field, and this line offers sneaky value. Look for a rebound performance from Cortes and a clutch late-inning effort to help the Brewers secure the win tonight. ⚾💰