The Braves are 75-42 straight-up, but just 60-57 against the run line this season. Furthermore, they're just 18-25 RL against American League competition, the fourth-lowest RL winning percentage (41.9%) in interleague games this year. The Yankees are 17-10 RL as road underdogs and 17-14 RL in interleague games this season.

Atlanta has been dominant, and New York has fallen flat on its face this year, especially lately. The same can be said of Tuesday's probable starting pitchers. That said, recency bias is a curse for sports bettors! This is precisely why I bet on the Yankees as large ML underdogs (+195) on Monday and will be betting on them to cover the 1.5-run line at -109 odds on Tuesday.

Everyone has jumped off the Severino bandwagon this season, as he was putrid in five July outings (11.22 ERA) and has been even worse in August (13.50 ERA). The Yankees attempted to break him out of his spell by pitching him behind an opener in his last start, but he still gave up four runs in two innings. While most will blindly steer clear of him tomorrow, I'm going to zig while they zag, betting on the two-time All-Star to bounce back with an encouraging showing.

The Yankees' bats should also show some fire in this pivotal series. On Tuesday, they should be raring to go against Elder, who has given up 12 runs (10 earned) in his last two starts (9.1 IP). The young right-hander had a similar stretch in July against Tampa Bay and Arizona and has given up six HRs in his last six starts (28.1 IP). If the Yankees' sluggers show up, New York can certainly keep this game close.