I'm sure there are plenty of bettors taking on the underdog Marlins tonight, as they're assuming Sandy Alcantara will continue to pitch like his 2022 self (one run in nine innings vs. NYY in his last start). I'm not one of those bettors! I'll fade the Marlins starter tonight against the scalding-hot Dodgers (6.2 runs/game in August), who are going to throw him off his game...

Miami has a .307 team OBP on the road this season and is scoring less than four runs per game away from home. Against Tony Gonsolin, I expect it to fall short of the mark again. The LA starter had one of his best outings in some time last time on the mound, holding Colorado to one run on three hits in six innings, with the lone run coming via the long ball. Miami is bottom-five in HRs this year (28th overall) and scoring just 3.8 runs/game since the All-Star break.