Atlanta has the third-highest run line winning percentage as home favorites (50.8%) and the best run line record, 23-9, against NL East competition. New York has the lowest run line winning percentage as road underdogs (35.3%) this season.

I'm betting on the Braves to cover the run line on Tuesday, holding off the suddenly-hot Mets. Megill is a sub-par starter who has struggled consistently since late May, surrendering four-plus runs in six of his last nine outings. He's also had trouble with his command, as he's given up four-plus walks in four of his last seven starts. Less than two weeks ago, he got knocked around by the Braves, which I predict will be the case again tomorrow.

Elder may have also turned a corner in his last start (one hit in seven frames). If he can keep the Mets off the basepaths, he should be able to outpitch Megill before handing the ball over to the Braves' elite bullpen (second-lowest ERA and lowest WHIP in MLB).

I'm betting on the Atlanta run line at -104 odds!