Ohio is the more experienced, deeper team, and following the recent news that star quarterback Nathan Rourke will start Saturday, I'm bullish on its upset odds.

Rourke threw for 21 touchdowns and 2,725 yards, completed nearly 69% of his passes, and possesses dual-threat capability. He threw just four interceptions in 353 passing attempts, as well. The Bobcats' offensive line should punish the Aztecs' small, inferior front, giving Rourke plenty of time to distribute the ball to his weapons. Ohio has two legit receiving threats in former Ohio State transfer Sam Wiglusz (73 receptions for 877 yards and 11 TDs) and Jacoby Jones (45 receptions for 776 yards and six TDs), plus a couple of reliable running backs in Sieh Bangura (222 carries for 1,078 yards and 13 TDs) and O’Shaan Allison, who is back after missing all of 2022 with a shoulder injury. The Aztecs are also a solid defensive team but lost a lot of production at linebacker, and safety Patrick McMorris departed for Cal via the transfer portal.

The Bobcats' defense turned a corner in the second half of last season. After allowing 561 yards per game over their first six games, they didn’t give up more than 390 in any of their last eight. The defense will be led by the secondary, which also welcomes Holy Cross transfer safety Walter Reynolds (175 tackles, 10 picks, and 30 passes defended in four years with the Crusaders). SDSU QB Jalen Mayden is turnover-prone (12-10 TD-INT rate in 2022) and is operating behind an offensive line that performed poorly in pass protection last season.

With Rourke under center, Ohio has enough advantages to pull off the road win this week in San Diego. I'll be betting on the Bobcats ML, and you should, too!