PREMIUM
Hawaii vs. Vanderbilt (Rainbow Warriors +18)
(NCAAF) Hawaii vs. Vanderbilt,
Point Spread: 18.00 | -110.00 Hawaii (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 18.00 | -110.00 Hawaii (Away)
Result: Win
Hawaii has made significant progress since last season's opening game, which Vanderbilt won decisively. This year, the Rainbow Warriors have a full year of experience in head coach Timmy Chang's system under their belt and return more starting experience across the board. That includes junior quarterback Brayden Schager, who took steps in the right direction by the end of the season, especially the final two games. With a full offseason in the run and shoot, he'll be a different player in 2023.
Schrager will benefit from the addition of Kansas transfer WR Steven McBride and the return of 5-foot-7 scat back Tylan Hines, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry in 2022. The offensive line returns a wealth of starting experience, too. The Vandy defense was not good last season and must replace the production of leading tackler Anfernee Orji (107 tackles). The Commodores were 127th in EPA/Play Allowed and allowed 6.8 yards/play, the third-highest average in college football.
As for the Vanderbilt offense, I question whether they can cover the 18-point spread. QB AJ Swann will take over as the full-time starter after Mike Wright departed for Mississippi State. Wright was a dual-threat QB who led the 'Dores to upset victories over Kentucky and Florida. Swann is no threat in the run game and was careless with the football at times, making 13 turnover-worthy plays. The Commodores also lost veteran running back Ray Davis, who toted the rock 232 times last season and will likely be starting a freshman at RB on Saturday.
Hawaii's defense should be improved, too. The Rainbow Warriors return nine starters (five of six top tacklers) and bolstered the defensive line via the transfer portal, welcoming three Power 5 D-linemen. The secondary also should be much better with Peter Manuma (70 tackles, two INTs) returning to lead the safeties and Wyoming transfer Cam Stone (two INTs, ten PBUs) leading the corners.
With all that said, I believe there is value on Hawaii at +17.5 to +18, and wouldn't be surprised if the line moves in its direction closer to kickoff.
Schrager will benefit from the addition of Kansas transfer WR Steven McBride and the return of 5-foot-7 scat back Tylan Hines, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry in 2022. The offensive line returns a wealth of starting experience, too. The Vandy defense was not good last season and must replace the production of leading tackler Anfernee Orji (107 tackles). The Commodores were 127th in EPA/Play Allowed and allowed 6.8 yards/play, the third-highest average in college football.
As for the Vanderbilt offense, I question whether they can cover the 18-point spread. QB AJ Swann will take over as the full-time starter after Mike Wright departed for Mississippi State. Wright was a dual-threat QB who led the 'Dores to upset victories over Kentucky and Florida. Swann is no threat in the run game and was careless with the football at times, making 13 turnover-worthy plays. The Commodores also lost veteran running back Ray Davis, who toted the rock 232 times last season and will likely be starting a freshman at RB on Saturday.
Hawaii's defense should be improved, too. The Rainbow Warriors return nine starters (five of six top tacklers) and bolstered the defensive line via the transfer portal, welcoming three Power 5 D-linemen. The secondary also should be much better with Peter Manuma (70 tackles, two INTs) returning to lead the safeties and Wyoming transfer Cam Stone (two INTs, ten PBUs) leading the corners.
With all that said, I believe there is value on Hawaii at +17.5 to +18, and wouldn't be surprised if the line moves in its direction closer to kickoff.
