I'm picking the Pirates to win straight-up over the Cardinals on Friday night. St. Louis has the third-lowest winning percentage (44.7%) as home favorites – and that's after it stole two games from the Padres this week. I don't believe they should be favorites against Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller.

The 27-year-old has impressed lately, holding his last three opponents to three combined runs with 25 strikeouts (20.0 IP). He has rebounded following a string of poor starts in late July and is a good bet to outpitch Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson starter on the road, where he sports a 102:26 K:BB ratio.

Hudson gave up five runs on six hits and five walks with just one K in his last outing, a loss to Philadelphia. He has surrendered a homer in each start this month (six total in five games), along with 12 walks. The Pirates swept the Royals earlier this week, outscoring KC 15-4. I feel confident their momentum will carry over into Friday's game at Busch Stadium, where they will be victorious.