The spread has come down from almost 40 to 35, where I feel there is comfortable space for the over to cash. UMass is getting too much respect for its Week 0 performance, a 41-30 victory, against New Mexico State, but I can already see the expectations crashing down on the Minutemen.

Auburn has a loaded offensive attack. Head coach Hugh Freeze knows offense and his OC, former Tulsa head coach and Baylor OC Philip Montgomery, does too... Fun fact: Liberty averaged 53 points per game against UMass in four straight contests under Freeze. That's a lot of points!

The Tigers loaded up in the transfer portal with SEC-caliber starters, including QB Payton Thorne, who passed for over 6,000 yards and 46 TDs the past two seasons at Michigan State and brings a mobile element to the offense. The receivers may not be household names, but they are talented, and the Auburn run game averaged over 200 yards per game last season without much of a passing game. Jarquez Hunter (6.5 YPC) and USF transfer Brian Battie (1,185 yards, eight TDs, and 6.7 YPC) will carry the load effectively against UMass tomorrow, breaking off a few big runs for touchdowns.

The Minutemen rushed for nearly 200 yards against NM State, but that won't happen on Saturday. QB Taisun Phommachanh was responsible for most of those yards, plus 192 through the air, making him the central focus of Auburn's defensive strategy. After his Week 0 showing, the Tigers won't be caught off guard by the former Clemson signal-caller. I'm betting on the Tigers to expose last week's performance as fraudulent.