Lucas Giolito is making his first start with Cleveland, but he's certainly not unfamiliar with his opponent — the former Chicago starter is facing the Twins for the fourth time this season. In those previous three outings, he held Minnesota to one run in six innings, one run in seven frames, and no runs in five innings. He fanned 23 batters in those three appearances, as well. I'm counting on Gioltio, who also sports a 2.53 ERA at home this season, to keep the Guardians in the game against Minnesota starter Pablo López, who has given up 16 hits and nine runs in two starts vs. Cleveland in 2023.

While Cleveland could have similar success against him tomorrow, I am more confident with the run line at -140 odds than I am predicting an outright victory.