I'm picking Miami to cover on Tuesday at home with Jesus Luzardo on the hill. The left-hander will build off consecutive quality starts (zero runs and three total hits with 15 strikeouts in 12 innings) against the Dodgers, who have dropped three of their last four games straight-up. He has a 3.15 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP at home (16 starts) this year.

The Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw, who did not pitch past the fifth inning in any of his August outings (17.0 IP in four starts), surrendering a long ball in each appearance. The Marlins are riding high, following a four-game sweep of Washington that helped them climb back into the Wild Card picture.

While a straight-up win could be in the cards, I still see the Miami RL as a value play at -135 odds. With all that's working in the Marlins' favor, plus the extra run as insurance, it's my most confident pick on Tuesday!