PREMIUM
Miami vs. LA Chargers (Under 51.5): BEST BET NFL
(NFL) Miami vs. LA Chargers,
Total: 51.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
Total: 51.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
The total is low, but I believe the under is the winning bet at 51.5 for several reasons. This matchup will be pitched as two high-flying offenses, with Justin Herbert leading a new-look Chargers offense and Tua Tagovailoa heading an aerial attack brimming with elite receivers. However, the defenses are going to be the story.
Miami is switching defensive philosophies under Vic Fangio, swapping an ultra-aggressive attack for a more conservative approach. The stop unit defense will make the Dolphins less susceptible to home runs (37 passing plays of 25 yards or more in 2022). Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, and others will shine on Sunday, harassing Herbert and lending a hand to the Miami pass defense.
A lot has been made of LA's transition from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore, but I have more questions than answers about the new offensive scheme. First of all, I don't expect as much of a tempo change as some are pegging it to be — LA already moved at a fast clip last year. Secondly, the LA receivers aren't built for an aerial attack that relies on speed to stretch the field and maximize Herbert’s arm strength. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are big, older receivers with well-documented injury histories. The rushing attack also managed the third-fewest yards per carry (3.7) last season. Herbert needs a complementary run game to keep defenses from teeing off on him. He faced the second-most blitzes in 2022 and absorbed the second-most QB hits (72).
On the other side of the football, the Dolphins are a Tua injury away from a trainwreck on offense. The Miami offensive line ranks somewhere in the bottom ten of the league and doesn't project to be vastly improved in pass protection this season. I expect the Dolphins' pace to be slower than average, especially in this game, out of caution for Tua's health.
As long as the LA run defense plays pretty well, the Chargers' pass defense should fare well against the Dolphins on Sunday. Last season, they ranked 10th in Pass Defense DVOA and No. 2 in EPA allowed per dropback (35.6% success rate through the air). Furthermore, I predict the LA pass rush will be much improved, with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack getting into the backfield more than they did in 2022. If they can create chaos, Tagovailoa will be forced into hurried throws that will lead to incompletions and LA turnovers.
Both of these teams are intent on keeping the football in front of them on defense to prevent home runs. I believe this will result in an under, and I'm confident enough in its value that I'm making it my NFL Best Bet this week!
Miami is switching defensive philosophies under Vic Fangio, swapping an ultra-aggressive attack for a more conservative approach. The stop unit defense will make the Dolphins less susceptible to home runs (37 passing plays of 25 yards or more in 2022). Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, and others will shine on Sunday, harassing Herbert and lending a hand to the Miami pass defense.
A lot has been made of LA's transition from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore, but I have more questions than answers about the new offensive scheme. First of all, I don't expect as much of a tempo change as some are pegging it to be — LA already moved at a fast clip last year. Secondly, the LA receivers aren't built for an aerial attack that relies on speed to stretch the field and maximize Herbert’s arm strength. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are big, older receivers with well-documented injury histories. The rushing attack also managed the third-fewest yards per carry (3.7) last season. Herbert needs a complementary run game to keep defenses from teeing off on him. He faced the second-most blitzes in 2022 and absorbed the second-most QB hits (72).
On the other side of the football, the Dolphins are a Tua injury away from a trainwreck on offense. The Miami offensive line ranks somewhere in the bottom ten of the league and doesn't project to be vastly improved in pass protection this season. I expect the Dolphins' pace to be slower than average, especially in this game, out of caution for Tua's health.
As long as the LA run defense plays pretty well, the Chargers' pass defense should fare well against the Dolphins on Sunday. Last season, they ranked 10th in Pass Defense DVOA and No. 2 in EPA allowed per dropback (35.6% success rate through the air). Furthermore, I predict the LA pass rush will be much improved, with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack getting into the backfield more than they did in 2022. If they can create chaos, Tagovailoa will be forced into hurried throws that will lead to incompletions and LA turnovers.
Both of these teams are intent on keeping the football in front of them on defense to prevent home runs. I believe this will result in an under, and I'm confident enough in its value that I'm making it my NFL Best Bet this week!
