PREMIUM
Philadelphia vs. New England (Patriots +3.5)
(NFL) Philadelphia vs. New England,
Point Spread: 3.50 | -106.00 New England (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 3.50 | -106.00 New England (Home)
Result: Loss
Philadelphia is more vulnerable in the run game than you might believe. It's solid up front, but after losing two starters, the linebackers are going to be exposed this season in games the Eagles aren't up a lot early. When Philly is leading, opponents are forced to abandon the run, which allows its pass rush to tee off. On Sunday, I don't expect that to be the case.
The Eagles ranked 23rd in both EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate versus the run last season. In the ten games they failed to cover the spread (including the playoffs), they allowed an average of 141 rushing yards, as all ten foes rushed for 99 or more yards on the ground. Nakobe Dean is dealing with an ankle injury and Shaun Bradley is out of the year, putting additional stress on the unit. That will be problematic against New England RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott.
Stevenson started just seven games last season and averaged only 12.4 carries per game, but in the three games they gave Stevenson more than 16 carries last season, he had 409 yards on 63 carries (6.49 YPC AVG). In two of those games, he rushed for 161 yards and 172 yards. With the veteran Elliott serving as his reserve, this RB group has upside, especially with a more competent play-caller at OC, Bill O'Brien. A complementary run game will take pressure off of Pats QB Mac Jones and the NE o-line, too.
I'm also high on the Patriots' defense. New England finished second with 30 takeaways and scored seven touchdowns (these scores accounted for 18% of the team's total touchdowns) in 2022. Last season's defense finished third in Football Outsiders' DVOA, just behind the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. The defensive starters are all back (minus Devin McCourty) and New England went heavy on defensive players at the top of the draft. Bill Belichick's defense has finished in the top 10 of either yards allowed or points allowed for 11 straight seasons...
With O'Brien taking better care of the offense and defense stout as always, I find value in the Patriots +3.5 at home in week one.
The Eagles ranked 23rd in both EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate versus the run last season. In the ten games they failed to cover the spread (including the playoffs), they allowed an average of 141 rushing yards, as all ten foes rushed for 99 or more yards on the ground. Nakobe Dean is dealing with an ankle injury and Shaun Bradley is out of the year, putting additional stress on the unit. That will be problematic against New England RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott.
Stevenson started just seven games last season and averaged only 12.4 carries per game, but in the three games they gave Stevenson more than 16 carries last season, he had 409 yards on 63 carries (6.49 YPC AVG). In two of those games, he rushed for 161 yards and 172 yards. With the veteran Elliott serving as his reserve, this RB group has upside, especially with a more competent play-caller at OC, Bill O'Brien. A complementary run game will take pressure off of Pats QB Mac Jones and the NE o-line, too.
I'm also high on the Patriots' defense. New England finished second with 30 takeaways and scored seven touchdowns (these scores accounted for 18% of the team's total touchdowns) in 2022. Last season's defense finished third in Football Outsiders' DVOA, just behind the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. The defensive starters are all back (minus Devin McCourty) and New England went heavy on defensive players at the top of the draft. Bill Belichick's defense has finished in the top 10 of either yards allowed or points allowed for 11 straight seasons...
With O'Brien taking better care of the offense and defense stout as always, I find value in the Patriots +3.5 at home in week one.
