NC State's 3-3-5 defense has given Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman fits in the past (six picks in three games at Wake) and I feel confident he'll turn the ball over at least once on Saturday. The Wolfpack have a talented QB of their own, UVA transfer Brennan Armstrong. He's a threat to leave the pocket and bust a big run on every play. He could be tough to tackle in the open field – the Irish rank 95th in tackle grading, per PFF, despite playing inferior competition in their first two games.

Notre Dame is overvalued (SHOCKING) and should be on upset alert. I'll take the 7.5 points — I feel great about NC State's odds of keeping this game close!