Betting Trends: Detroit boasts a 39-19 (67.2%) run line record as underdogs, including 11-5 (68.7%) as home underdogs, while Minnesota is 28-40 (41.2%) RL as betting favorites (14-14 RL as away favorites).

The Tigers are having their best month at the dish, slashing .255 BA/.317 OBP/.474 SLG/.791 OPS with 31 home runs in 19 games. They're scoring 5.3 runs per game in July, outscoring their opponents by 1.2 runs on average. López has not lived up to expectations this season, and he's been especially pitiful in night games (2-5 with a 6.71 ERA and .290 opponent BA).

The rookie Montero has only made five starts, but one of his best outings came against the Twins earlier this month. His xERA is nearly a run lower than his actual ERA, suggesting positive regression could be in his future. With an extra run of insurance, he should be able to outpitch López, giving the home team a great shot at pulling off the upset.

At -115 odds, I favor a wager on Detroit to cover the run line in Friday's series opener against division rival Minnesota.