Wednesday's starting pitching matchup favors a wager on the under.

Joe Musgrove is finding his groove since returning from the IL, posting a 0.57 ERA with 16 Ks and just three walks in his last three starts (15.2 IP). He posted seven shutout innings with nine Ks, needing just 75 pitches, in his last start vs. the Mets, looking like his old self. After SD used several relievers on Tuesday, I believe Musgrove will give the Padres the length they need.

Andre Pallante has also impressed me lately, holding his last three opponents to five runs (four earned) in 19.2 frames, including two seven-inning quality starts in wins over the Dodgers and Twins. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters but he keeps the ball in the yard (one HR in his last six starts), as he avoids barrels (3.4% in 2024; 96th percentile) and limits hard contact (83rd percentile in average exit velocity). He induces a lot of ground balls (62.7% groundball rate), so I expect him to force the Padres into a lot of weak ground outs today.