Lugo since the All-Star break: 5.20 ERA and .233 opponent BA. He has allowed at least four runs in five of his last eight outings. His Expected ERA (xERA) is now 3.97, nearly a run higher than his actual ERA.

Valdez since the break: 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his seven starts. He has a ground-ball rate above 60%.

Houston's bullpen ranks 2nd in ERA over the last month, while KC's bullpen has a 4.42 ERA (26th) and a 1.40 WHIP (28th) this season.

KC's road splits are nothing like its home splits, while Houston's offense is trending up. Give me the 'Stros to cover at +130 odds today.