Luke Fickell's teams are 6-12 ATS when favored by 22-plus pts, failing to cover in seven straight as three-TD favorites. The Badgers didn't beat anyone by more than 21 last season.

Leading rusher Braelon Allen is gone, and I'm not sold on Tyler Van Dyke, whose roller-coaster play at Miami resulted in him transferring out of the program. He threw 17 INTs in the last two seasons and will face a Western Michigan defense that returns a lot of experience. The secondary, in particular, is talented with top returning tacklers, Tate Hallock and Aaron Wofford, back.

WMU ranks top-15 nationally in returning production, as its offense brings back eight starters, including QB Hayden Wolff (65.5% CMP%), RB Jalen Buckley (1,003 rush yards and ten TDs), and leading receivers Kenneth Womack (76 receptions for 691 yards) and Anthony Sambucci (15.1 YPC AVG and five TDs). The o-line will also be solid. Defensively, Wisconsin returns just two starters in its front seven and wasn't elite last season, ranking 62nd in Defensive Success Rate.

I'll take Western Michigan to cover at +24.5!