Miami's fourth-quarter struggles are well-documented, as it has posted a -11.5 Net rating in the fourth quarter this season. Compare that to its first three quarters: +9.6 Net Rating in the 1st, +5.7 in the 2nd, and +0.7 in the 3rd, and it's easy to see that the Heat have trouble finishing games.

Houston, on the other hand, is 20-14 ATS in the fourth quarter this season. At +152 odds, I see significant betting value on the Rockets to win straight-up on Monday in Miami.