Charlie Morton's underlying metrics have turned some people off, but let's not overlook the fact that he's held five straight opponents to ten total runs with 36 strikeouts in 36.5 innings. Nick Martinez has allowed four earned runs in consecutive starts and gave up eight earned runs on 11 hits (with three HRs) in his previous 7.1 innings (two appearances). The Braves still have to push for a playoff spot and have the superior bullpen (third-lowest ERA in MLB).

Plus, I don't like this spot for the Reds. They played a weekend series in New York, traveled to Atlanta for a single make-up game today, and then will travel overnight again to St. Louis after the game. The Braves are on a seven-game homestand that has featured series wins over Colorado and Toronto.

Cincinnati's lineup isn't powerful enough to keep pace when Atlanta pulls away. I like the Braves ML but love the upside on them to cover the 1.5-run line at +135 odds!