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TB vs. PHI (Under 7.5)
(MLB) Rays (TAM) vs. Phillies (PHI),
Total: 7.50 | -122.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 7.50 | -122.00 Under
Result: Win
My analysis for Wednesday's game: https://winnersandwhiners.com/games/mlb/9-11-2024/tampa-bay-rays-vs-philadelphia-phillies-prediction-8841/
Betting Trends: The under is 37-27-3 when the Phillies are home favorites and 28-19 when the Rays are road underdogs this season.
I touched on how well Wheeler has pitched this season, and while a few Rays have had a few good cracks at him in the past, it's a small sample size. The Phillies' right-hander is unlikely to pitch poorly against a Tampa Bay lineup that hits .224 BA/.301 OBP/.356 SLG/.657 OPS with a 27.5% strikeout rate vs. right-hand pitchers. The Rays rank 26th in wOBA (.296) and 21st in wRC+ (98), and score less than four runs per game on the road. The Phillies' bullpen may not be elite, but they don't walk a lot of batters (fourth-fewest in MLB) and are tied for the ninth-lowest WHIP.
Baz is likely going to regress, but it's unclear if and when that day will come. The righty has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his ten starts and has performed well on the road. The Phillies have a potent lineup but they have scored three total runs in their last two games and have never faced the Rays' starter before. If they can't get to him early, I don't like their chances of breaking the game open against the TB bullpen, which has excelled in the second half of the season, ranking first in ERA, fifth in K-BB% and tenth in WAR since the All-Star break.
Betting Trends: The under is 37-27-3 when the Phillies are home favorites and 28-19 when the Rays are road underdogs this season.
I touched on how well Wheeler has pitched this season, and while a few Rays have had a few good cracks at him in the past, it's a small sample size. The Phillies' right-hander is unlikely to pitch poorly against a Tampa Bay lineup that hits .224 BA/.301 OBP/.356 SLG/.657 OPS with a 27.5% strikeout rate vs. right-hand pitchers. The Rays rank 26th in wOBA (.296) and 21st in wRC+ (98), and score less than four runs per game on the road. The Phillies' bullpen may not be elite, but they don't walk a lot of batters (fourth-fewest in MLB) and are tied for the ninth-lowest WHIP.
Baz is likely going to regress, but it's unclear if and when that day will come. The righty has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his ten starts and has performed well on the road. The Phillies have a potent lineup but they have scored three total runs in their last two games and have never faced the Rays' starter before. If they can't get to him early, I don't like their chances of breaking the game open against the TB bullpen, which has excelled in the second half of the season, ranking first in ERA, fifth in K-BB% and tenth in WAR since the All-Star break.
